Objective  By evaluating the publicly published literature on the budget impact analysis (BIA) of medical insurance in China, to investigate the accuracy of BIA prediction,  analyze its influencing factors, and provide reference for medical insurance decision-making in China.

Methods  PubMed, Web of Science, CNKI, Wanfang and VIP Database were used to collect related literature about BIA research. The quality of included literature was quantitatively evaluated by Quality Assessment Scale for Budget Impact Analysis of the Medical Insurance. The accuracy analysis indicator was the ratio of predicted values to actual values of drug sales revenue. The t-test was used for univariate analysis, and the multiple linear regression analysis was used for multivariate analysis.

Results  A total of 11 articles were ultimately included in the study, with a scale evaluation score of 0.750 3±0.030 9. There were a total of 24 sample values included in the analysis. The results of univariate analysis showed that the literature score had a statistically significant impact on the accuracy of BIA prediction (P<0.05), and the multivariate analysis showed that the accuracy of BIA prediction was influenced by literature review scores and average annual/course drug costs (F=7.844, P<0.05).

Conclusion  The quality of the literature about medical insurance BIA research in China is good, but there are still problems in data citation, analysis content, and presentation of results. The accuracy of prediction is far from satisfaction, and the prediction values are generally higher than the actual values. It is recommended to increase the emphasis on the quality of medical insurance BIA research and strengthen the relevant research on the accuracy of medical insurance BIA.

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