Objective  To analyze the influencing factors on the efficacy of aripiprazole (APZ) combined with sertraline (SRT) in the treatment of adolescent depression (AD), and construct a prediction model.

Methods  The clinical data of AD patients from Lishui Second People's Hospital treated with the combination of APZ and SRT were restropectively analyzed. According to the treatment outcomes, the patients were divided into the clinical effectiveness group and the clinical ineffectiveness group. T-test and chi-square test were used to compare the differences of clinical data variables in AD patients; least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was employed to screen the key factors influencing AD treatment efficacy; binary logistic regression was adopted to explore the potential relationships between key factors and AD treatment efficacy; the “rms” package was used to construct the AD treatment efficacy prediction model, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve were plotted to evaluate the performance of the AD treatment efficacy prediction model.

Results  A total of 278 AD patients were enrolled, including 236 in the effective group and 42 in the ineffective group. The clinical effective rate of APZ combined with SRT in the treatment of AD was 84.89% (95%CI: 80.68%, 89.10%). Disease course [OR=19.081, 95%CI (4.551, 80.003), P<0.001], living environment (rural area) [OR=0.08, 95%CI (0.011, 0.605), P=0.014], negative life events (presence) [OR=8.427, 95%CI (1.221, 58.141), P=0.031], Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAMA) score [OR=1.291, 95%CI (1.112, 1.754), P=0.011], and interleukin-1β (IL^-1β) level [OR=7.854, 95%CI (2.71, 22.758), P<0.001] were predictive factors for the efficacy of APZ combined with SRT in treating AD patients. ROC analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the AD treatment efficacy prediction model for predicting the ineffectiveness of APZ combined with SRT treatment was 0.988 (0.975, 1.000). The calibration curve demonstrated that the "predicted probability" and the "actual probability" of the ineffectiveness of APZ combined with SRT treatment were basically consistent.

Conclusion  This study successfully constructed a prediction model for the efficacy of APZ combined with SRT in the treatment of AD, which may help with the clinical diagnosis and treatment of AD patients.

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